Meg Whitman
So the race begins, with some fantastic contradictions. Meg Whitman, labeled the more "conservative" candidate, actually lays claim to being the innovator in the campaign to choose California's next governor. She'll base her campaign on the imperative to cut back the power of the public service unions that are bankrupting the state, as well as on simple fiscal accountability, like: income should exceed spending. It tells a lot about our times, that these are "innovations" in politics.
Meanwhile, former governor Jerry Brown is back. In the 1970s he made his own claim on the mantle of innovator, based chiefly on personal idiosyncrasies like choosing to live in an apartment rather than in the governor's mansion, insisting on riding in an ordinary sedan rather than a limo, including "explore the universe" in his mission statement.
Whitman's a billionaire who can afford to self-fund the general election campaign. Brown will rely on big money from the very unions whose influence Whitman seeks to curb. Brown will seek to paint her as an enabler and beneficiary of Wall Street's worst excesses, and as a political neophyte with a spotty voting record, who aims to "buy" the governorship. Brown's attempt to balance his considerable resume (offices held: governor, secretary of state, attorney general, mayor of Oakland, talk radio host) with a claim to be a lifelong political "outsider." For her part, Whitman will insist that her non-political background, combined with her considerable business success, makes her the ideal candidate to take on the entrenched political status quo in Sacramento.
Both candidates know there's going to be no real rest after yesterday's primary. Both will spend the coming weeks attempting to define the other candidate as out-of-touch, unqualified, unsuited, a dangerous choice, the wrong direction, too risky — all the usual charges. Whitman's potential liability — her lack of political experience — is the flip side of Brown's problem: his long political and media career presents ample opportunity for Team Whitman to dredge up a lot of Brown's wild political utterances. For instance:
"I've been in office and I've been out of office. And if I were to choose, I'd rather be in office."
"The conventional viewpoint says we need a jobs program and we need to cut welfare. Just the opposite! We need more welfare and fewer jobs."
Because Brown made many such statements on the air as a radio host, you can be sure Whitman is going to use his actual voice in radio and TV commercials. Her campaign's goal will be to present him as a seventy-something throwback to the Seventies, and a slightly dotty one, at that. Meanwhile, Brown will argue that Whitman's monied status makes her intrinsically untrustworthy in the wake of recent financial crises. Expect this from Jerry: "I've got plenty of experience at a time when experience needs to count." Meg will reply: "Plenty of experience saying and doing truly bizarre things."
It's way too early to handicap the race. But from where I sit as a former political campaign honcho, Whitman's got the upper hand going into the fall campaign.